Election latest: Reform UK overtakes Tories for first time in new poll (2024)

ByJon Craig, chief political correspondent

There's a swagger about Mr Farage in this debate. He started by gloating about Reform UK overtaking the Conservatives in a YouGov poll and now he's growing in confidence and relishing at taking on Brexit opponents.

He appears to enjoy being in a minority of one in arguments with the leaders of the other smaller parties on immigration and other Brexit issues.

Penny Mordaunt, meanwhile, keeps coming back to the Tory attack on Labour on tax. She's relentlessly on message on the Tory tax assault on Labour.

No mention yet of Rishi Sunak's D-day fiasco from either the opposition politicians or the audience, so no criticism of the PM either!

The SNP's Stephen Flynn has accused Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner of giving a "shameful" response to a question on Brexit during tonight's ITV leaders' debate.

The seven politicians taking part in the debate were asked if they would seek to rejoin the EU or single market.

"No," Ms Rayner said, saying Labour respected the result of the referendum.

"Shameful, shameful," Mr Flynn could be heard saying.

He later added that his party would "absolutely" seek to rejoin, as did the Greens, Lib Dems and Plaid Cymru.

For the Conservatives, Penny Mordaunt said: "No, and if you have a Labour government they will take you back in, they will tie you on defence, on migration, on regulation, without any of the benefits of membership."

Nigel Farage said: "No, we are free. Unfortunately we are governed incompetently, but at least they are our mistakes and not somebody else's."

By Ed Conway, economics and data editor

Imagine a skyscraper: the tallest you've ever seen. Imagine it surrounded by other tall buildings - a cityscape of skyscrapers.

Now imagine a small semi-detached house standing in front of those buildings.

What you're picturing in your head is about the best visual approximation of the statistical difference between the fiscal plans from most of the manifestos this year - big, tall, towering financial commitments towards higher taxes and spending - and the Labour manifesto. That small semi-detached house is Labour's manifesto.

It is, at least in fiscal term, a piddler.

Now, there's a question we can get on to about whether Labour will actually end up keeping its fiscal figures anywhere close to those promised in its manifesto, but we now have them in black and white.

Broadly speaking there are two parts to the manifesto: the bit about day-to-day spending and the bit about green investment. Neither of them introduces any new policies we hadn't already heard about.

In short, Labour plans to raise taxes by £7.4bn by 2028/29 - mostly by tackling avoidance, clamping down on non-doms and forcing private schools to charge VAT. It plans to spend about £4.8bn of that money, which doesn't sound like all that much - and it isn't. Indeed, there are real questions about whether this is enough funding to keep public services functioning, given there are big real terms cuts pencilled in in the coming years.

Even so, it implies Labour will leave a £2.5bn buffer of safety in the public finances. In other words, it looks pretty cautious.

Read more here:

By Jon Craig, chief political correspondent

The opening statements in the ITV leaders' debate may have been extremely brief, but they spoke volumes.

Predictably, Nigel Farage wasted no time in gloating about the shock opinion poll minutes before the start which put Reform UK ahead of the Conservatives.

"We are now the opposition to Labour," he declared, in a boast that he has been wanting to trumpet at full volume for weeks as support for his party has risen gradually during the campaign.

And Penny Mordaunt served notice that she will go on the attack against Labour on tax in the debate, claiming she'll talk about the Tories cutting taxes and Labour raising them.

Buckle up. It's going to be a bumpy ride.

A shock poll showing Nigel Farage's Reform UK has overtaken the Conservatives has lit the blue touch paper under the latest TV election debate.

The poll, by YouGov, suggests support for Reform is now 19%, up two points and a point above the Tories on 18%.

It's a record high for Mr Farage’s party and the first time it has overtaken the Conservatives.

And the provocative Mr Farage now has the perfect platform, with a 90-minute TV debate, to gloat about his party's dramatic breakthrough and launch a new onslaught on the beleaguered Tories.

The debate comes just hours after the launch of the Labour manifesto in Manchester, and it is deputy leader Angela Rayner who will be the party's standard-bearer in the seven-way debate, for the second time in this election campaign.

Speaking minutes before the debate gets under way, Ms Rayner said: "I'm about to take the stage and debate Penny Mordaunt, Nigel Farage and co.

"Today of all days, when we released our manifesto, I'm proud to be able to take the stage and represent our party to deliver our message of change.

"The truth is, everyone I'm up against tonight wants to see Labour falter. But I'm well up for it."

The other four leading politicians taking part in an ITV election debate in Salford are the SNP's Westminster leader Stephen Flynn, the Lib Dem deputy leader Daisy Cooper, the Green Party's co-leader Carla Denyer and Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth.

And while Mr Farage will be jubilant, it will fall to Commons leader Ms Mordaunt to lift Tory morale after a poll that will be seen as a huge turning point in the election campaign and a crushing blow to the Tories' hopes of re-election.

Ms Mordaunt is likely to reinforce the Conservatives' claim that a vote for Reform UK will help Sir Keir Starmer become prime minister, but it's a warning that so far has not been heeded by wavering Tory supporters switching to Reform UK in large numbers.

Reform UK has overtaken the Conservative Party for the first time in a new YouGov poll for The Times.

It puts Nigel Farage's party on 19%, ahead of the Conservatives on 18%.

The poll was carried out after Prime Minister Rishi Sunak launched the Conservative manifesto earlier this week.

It shows Reform up two points, with Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens all down one.

• Labour: 37% (-1)
• Reform: 19% (+2)
• Conservatives: 18% (nc)
• Lib Dems: 14% (-1)
• Green Party: 7% (-1)
• SNP: 3% (+1)
• Plaid Cymru: 1% (nc)
• Other: 2% (+1)

The voting intention survey was done on Wednesday and Thursday, with 2,221 people taking part.

Will Jennings, Sky polling analyst, said the poll "represents a moment of huge danger to the Conservatives".

"Because of the geography of their support, Reform are not projected to win many seats, but they could still cost the Conservatives wins in narrowly contested seats across the country," he said.

"In many places this will make the difference between a constituency returning a Conservative or Labour MP."

Former cabinet secretarySir David Davis is now being asked whether - as the son of a single mum and someone raised on a council estate - he considers it a problem that the leader of the Conservative Party struggles to talk about sacrifice and hardship.

"Not everybodywho leads the country has to come from a council estate," he says.

He says Lord Cameron "plainly" came from a privileged background and "he got returned by a large, large majority".

Rishi Sunak listed not having Sky TV earlier this week as one of the sacrifices his parents made when raising him.

Defending the comment, Sir David said people are far more concerned about how well he runs the country and whether he has brought inflation down.

He says these "serious questions" are far more important to people than what he calls the "gossip column of television".

That brings our coverage of tonight's Politics Hub With Sophy Ridge to an end, but the show will be back tomorrow with Ali Fortescue.

Stick with us here for more news and analysis through the evening.

Next up on Politics Hub With Sophy Ridge is former Brexit secretary Sir David Davis.

Asked if the polls suggest it's all over for the Conservative campaign, Sir David says: "No, certainly not on the basis of what I'm seeing on the doorstep".

He says there's an error margin of 6% to 20% between the polls and the election outcome.

"What I'm seeing on the doorstep is people are beginning to focus… on the substantive issues for themselves."

The big issue for the public this week is tax, he says, following what he calls a "tax-cuttingTory manifesto and a Labour manifesto which tried to avoid the issue, but has been described by the IFS (Institute for Fiscal Studies) as tax raising" (we've more on this in our 15:18 post).

Sir David says people he's spoken are also "starting to look past all the shenanigans with [Nigel] Farage" and are voting Tory instead of "helping Labour" with a vote for Reform.

Opposition 'is really hard'

With this being his 11th general election, he knows what it's like for the Tories to end up in opposition.

"It's really hard… it's difficult, certainly in the early years. It's very difficult to score any points," Sir David says.

"I quite enjoy opposition because I'm quite good at it. I'm an opposition MP in some ways. But truth be told, for most of the Conservative Party, it's a grim thing to do if that's where we end up."

Plaid Cymru joined Labour in releasing their election manifesto today.

As ever, we've scoured their policy pledges, so you don't have to.

And it's not all about advocating for Welsh independence…

Scroll to the right in the interactive tool below to find out what the party has promised to do if they win the election.

We will produce a breakdown of all the other parties' manifestos here when they are announced - you can find the ones we've done so far in the key points above.

Labour shadow minister Lisa Nandy is now being challenged on comments made by Sir Keir Starmer in Sky's leaders' event last night in which he claimed he was "certain" his predecessor Jeremy Corbyn was going to lose the 2019 election.

Sophy Ridge asks Ms Nandy: "Did you not think he was going to win either?"

"We all made different choices at what was a really difficult time for the Labour Party," Ms Nandy, who served in Mr Corbyn's shadow cabinet alongside Sir Keir, replies.

"We were all trying to serve the country as best as we possibly could.

"All I would say to you is judge Keir Starmer by his actions."

Sky'spolitical editorBeth Rigbychallenged Sir Keir last night on his support for Mr Corbyn in 2017 and 2019, and his subsequent attempts to distance the party from his predecessor.

Responding to Sir Keir's comments, Mr Corbyn accused him of "rewriting history", saying it was "sad" (see post at 18.35pm).